Everything Still to Play For in Dramatic Third Tier Finale
Plymouth play host to MK Dons in a final-day fixture with many issues left to be settled and multiple potential outcomes.
As League One enters its final week, it is not exaggerative to say that this season has been like no other. While it looks as though Wigan Athletic should secure the title and climb to the Championship, a host of permutations, some more likely than others, mean they could still finish outside the top two and miss automatic promotion all together, while four sides competing for three play-off berths are separated by just one point point and only two goal difference.
Normally it would seem hyperbolic to suggest, but it is practically impossible to predict what might happen.
The Latics could have secured promotion at home to Plymouth Argyle on Saturday, but were held to a draw that saw the visitors reach 80 points, a figure they share with Sunderland and Wycombe Wanderers, which would normally be comfortably enough to secure a top-six finish and a place in the play-offs.
However, with Sheffield Wednesday currently seventh on 79 points – and with two games remaining – it is not inconceivable that a side could muster 83 points this campaign and not make the play-offs, something which has never been seen before at this level.
In fact, the last time a team secured 80 points and missed the end-of-season promotion fixtures was 2002/3, when Tranmere Rovers were the unlucky outfit. That season was dominated by Wigan, who amassed 100 points to top the division – this time around, they could reach 95 if they win their final two fixtures. That said, in 2009/10 Southampton were docked 10 points for financial irregularities; had that deduction not happened, Huddersfield Town would have finished seventh despite having 80 points.
While Wigan look certain to secure their place in the Championship next season, the second automatic spot remains up for grabs. Rotherham, who have been there or thereabouts all season, currently occupy second place but are level on points with MK Dons. Both teams have stumbled in recent weeks, but while Rotherham overcame Oxford this Saturday, the Dons claimed a vital win at home to Morecambe. The Millers travel to Sunderland on Tuesday evening in a huge game that could have significant impact on all the clubs involved in the run-in.
A win for Rotherham at the Stadium of Light would see them as-good-as promoted going into their final day fixture at Gillingham with a three point lead over the Dons and a goal difference advantage worth a point, especially with the MK side travelling to Plymouth, where their hosts have enjoyed excellent home form this season.
One potential reason for the near-unprecedented high points tallies at the top of the table could be the low accumulations at the bottom; going into the final week, Gillingham have 40 points from 45 games while Fleetwood – currently one position outside the drop zone – have 40 from 44.
With tough fixtures remaining – the aforementioned Rotherham for the Gills, Wednesday and Bolton for Fleetwood – it remains possible that 40 points could be enough to beat the drop, which would be a first for the third tier (the lowest previously recorded as Oxford United’s 45 in 1999/2000).
Even though this has been a wildly unpredictable division, it’s possible to identify a big and possibly growing gap between the teams at the top and those at the bottom. It’s long been thought that the gulf between Premier League and Championship is creating yo-yo teams like Fulham and Norwich, but something similar is developing between tiers two and three – should Rotherham secure promotion, it would be their third in five seasons, while Peterborough, Barnsley and Charlton Athletic, to name just a few, have all suffered relegations from the Championship in recent seasons within a year or two of winning promotion.
Before the start of this season, there were eleven or possibly twelve sides with legitimate ambitions for promotion from League One and maybe a couple more with hopes of making the play-offs. While some of those pre-season contenders have struggled – namely Ipswich Town and Charlton, who go into the final game of the campaign 11th and 12th respectively. Whoever misses out on promotion this year can bank on those two clubs, plus a number of others, regrouping and challenging next time around.
That Plymouth Argyle go into the final game with their play-off destiny in their own hands shouldn’t be overlooked as an outstanding achievement. 2020/21 saw the Pilgrims finish 18th after a terrible second half of the season, which led some pundits to predict a potential relegation battle.
After some smart recruitment in the summer, particularly bring in a completely new three-man defence in Dan Scarr, Macauley Gillesphey and James Wilson, Argyle went on an incredible run at the start of the campaign, losing just one of their first seventeen games. That sequence saw Ryan Lowe’s team hold on to first place in the table all the way up to Christmas, an achievement that saw the manager eventually catch the attention of Championship club Preston North End.
Following Lowe’s departure to Deepdale in December, Argyle moved quickly to appoint his assistant – Steven Schumacher – as his replacement, a smart move which has seen the Greens remain stable and adapt quickly, playing attractive football and ultimately earning the new boss the League One Manager of the Month award for March.

A tough string of fixtures towards the end of the season has seen Argyle struggle in recent weeks, particularly a demoralising 2-0 defeat at fellow play-off contenders Wycombe Wanderers, but they will know that a positive result on the final day will give them a great chance of securing an unexpected top-six spot.
Saturday’s visitors to Devon, MK Dons, would have been among most people’s expected candidates for promotion before a ball was kicked this season. A mid-table finish in 2020/21 came after an excellent finish to the campaign under hot managerial prospect Russell Martin, who joined the Dons in 2019 and established a successful, possession-heavy approach.
After a big-spending summer, Martin walked out on the Dons on the eve of the new season, leaving the club in the lurch to join Championship outfit Swansea City. Despite being rocked by Martin’s departure, the Dons made a smart managerial appointment, hiring the previously unknown Liam Manning. Since his arrival, the Dons have steadily grown into promotion contenders despite needing to replace a number of important loan players and midfield star Matt O’Riley in the January window, something which could easily have de-stabilised the squad and undermined their campaign.
Although they too have stuttered in recent weeks, losing back-to-back games against Sheffield Wednesday and Oxford United, Manning’s Dons have really found their groove since Christmas, with the defeat against the Owls ending a run of 15 games unbeaten and being only their second loss since 11th December.
By the time these two sides meet next Saturday, some of the remaining issues could be all but settled, which could totally change the complexion of this fixture.
Whatever happens between now and then, both clubs have overcome adversity and unexpected challenges throughout the campaign and although their end-of-season emotions could swing wildly from delight to despair, they should both be extremely proud.





